Page 20 of Eruption
“Yes, yes.” MacGregor sighed. He found himself looking at Rick’s bulging waistline. MacGregor was old enough to remember when being a volcanologist meant being in shape. To members of the field team, like Tim Kapaana, hiking across the slopes of mountains to make observations, tending the monitoring stations, pulling colleagues out of dangerous spots—all of that was a rush. MacGregor heard nothing but complaints whenever he ordered the systems and data analysts into the field. It was hot out there, hiking across the lava fields was difficult, and the sharp lava cut their boots and melted the rubber soles. For better or worse, this new generation of scientists was entranced with computers, addicted to them the way kids were to their phones. They were content to sit in the lab and manipulate data on monitors. MacGregor believed that led to a kind of computer arrogance. He saw it in Rick Ozaki’s attitude.
Rick said, “Mac, Kenny and I and some of the others have been talking.”
“Shocker.”
Rick let the word die between them and continued. “Look, everything is sharper now. When old Thomas Jaggar started this observatory in 1912, he used to predict eruptions within a range of a few months. Later scientists could predict them within a few days. Now we can predict them within hours.”
“I’m well aware.”
“And I’m aware that you are,” Rick said. “We have a better grasp of timing, but we also have a much better idea of where exactly an eruption will occur. Before the ’84 eruption, theyknew within a square mile where it would happen, and everybody stood out in the field and looked for the lava. The 2022 eruption was a small one, but we learned from it. Kenny and I believe we can predict the sites lava will erupt from within ten meters.”
MacGregor nodded. “Go on.”
“So we’ve been thinking, Mac. We’ve got the predictions down—we can say when and where the lava is going to come out—so maybe it’s time for the lab to take the next logical step.”
“Which is?”
Rick paused, then said, “Intervene.”
“Intervene?”
“Yes. Intervene in the eruption. Control it.”
MacGregor frowned. “Rick, listen, you know I respect your opinion—”
“And you know how much we all respect yours, even with all the smack we like to lay on you,” Kenny said, coming over. “But we think we can set explosive charges at specific places along the rift zone and vent the volcano.”
“Really.”
“Yes.”
MacGregor barked out a laugh.
“We’re serious, Mac.”
“Vent the volcano?”
“Why not?”
MacGregor didn’t answer. He just turned and walked up the stairs to the observation deck, located above the main laboratory. Rick and Kenny followed him.
“Seriously, Mac,” Rick said. “Why the hell not?”
MacGregor stared at the vast outline of Mauna Loa, a dark shape against the darkening sky. The volcano filled the horizon. “That’swhy not,” he said, pointing.
“Yeah, I know, it’s big,” Kenny said, “but—”
“Big?” MacGregor said. “What you can see of that beast inthe distance is big. If you measure it from its base on the ocean floor, that volcano is almost six miles high—more than three miles underwater, two and a half miles above. It is by far the largest geographical feature on this planet. And it produces fantastic volumes of lava—a billion cubic yards in the past thirty years. The eruption in 1984 wasn’t particularly large, but it produced enough lava to bury Manhattan to a depth of thirty feet. For Mauna Loa, that was hardly a belch. And then there’s the speed. In 2022, lava production was between fifty and one hundred cubic yards per second. That’s enough lava to fill one Manhattan apartment every second.
“And you’re talking aboutventingthe sucker? You guys have been spending too much time in front of your screens. That mountain isn’t some false-color satellite image that you manipulate with a couple of keystrokes. It’s a goddamn gigantic force of nature.”
In the darkness, Kenny and Rick tried to remain patient while Mac corrected them as if they were schoolchildren. “We understand that, Mac,” Kenny said. “We’re big boys.”
“Doyou understand? When was the last time you were up there?” MacGregor said. “It takes four or five hours just to walk around the caldera. It’s a big-ass mountain, guys.”
“Actually, we’ve spent quite a lot of time up there lately,” Rick said. “And we think—”
“What we’re really thinking about,” Kenny said, interrupting him, “is not Mauna Loa, Mac. It’sthat.” He pointed away from the volcano, toward the ocean and the glowing lights of Hilo. “Lava has threatened Hilo four times in the past century. Jaggar himself tried diversions, dams, and bombing to stop it. None of it worked.”